Few institutions have a better track record calling presidential races than the U.S. stock market. At the moment, it’s sending information that counts against Democrat Hillary Clinton. Logically, the stock market’s record of prescience is derived from its sensitivity to the economy, with falling shares potentially correlating with consumer discontent that might break in favor of a challenger. While this year’s signal ranks with the weaker ones historically, it comes as growth in gross domestic product is sluggish and follows the biggest monthly retreat in consumer confidence in a year.
According to Bloomberg:
The banking sector is also the industry most closely tied to the election and favors Trump, according to analysis by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Investment Banking and Brokerage index has rallied 13 percent in the last three months. “Despite the fact that Clinton has been ahead in the polls and is likely to win, most of the traditional industries that you would expect would do better under a Republican presidency have done better,”
“We have the Fed tomorrow, jobs on Friday and the election Tuesday,” said Mark Kepner, managing director and equity trader at Themis Trading LLC in Chatham, New Jersey. “You definitely have the fear factor rising today. Is it more election fear and pricing in the possibility of a Republican victory? Maybe. You also have numbers today that look like the Fed is still on track to raise rates in December.”
If for any reason a Trump presidency is better for the country, look no further than the market. Think of what’s left of your money when you vote in 6 days, because it’s dwindling fast.
What do you think?