Study Finds Trump Likely To Win In 2020

The study by British polling expert Lord Ashcroft found that the president is not losing his base and that a far left candidate could ensure President Trump’s victory, The Daily Mail reported.

To mark the halfway point of Mr Trump’s current term in the White House, Lord Ashcroft today releases new research on American public opinion. It exposes starkly divided views, with critics seeing the Mr Trump as an ‘erratic, chauvinistic President embarrassing America on the world stage’.

But Lord Ashcroft’s research also reveals that ‘the Donald’ has largely met or even surpassed the expectations of many of the people who voted for him at the 2016 election.


They point to a ‘thriving economy, stoked by tax cuts and deregulation’, as well as two conservative appointments to the US Supreme Court and a ‘tough line on illegal immigration and border security’.

The ‘Half-Time’ research, which includes surveys of 15,000 Americans since last year’s mid-term elections, also shows a Left-ward switch by the rival Democrat Party, which could have bearing on Mr Trump’s re-election chances.

Lord Ashcroft says that most Democrats now want the party to adopt more ‘liberal, progressive candidates than more moderate, centrist ones’. He writes that focus groups have revealed moderate voters saying they have been ‘driven Left-ward in reaction to Trump’. The findings will strike a chord with moderate Labour MPs who claim the move Left under Mr Corbyn makes it hard for their party to be elected.

It is two years today since Donald Trump entered the White House. That means we are exactly halfway between the last presidential inauguration and the next one; whether it also proves to be the halfway point in his presidency remains to be seen. Does President Trump have two years left in office – or six?

As my research has found over the past two years, those who voted for him positively, rather than as the only way of avoiding a President Hillary Clinton, remain solidly behind him.

They point to a thriving economy stoked by tax cuts and deregulation, two conservative appointments to the Supreme Court, a newly combative approach to international affairs, a willingness to reshape global trade deals in the interests of American jobs, and a tough line on immigration and border security.

They like that he continues to say exactly what he (and often, they) think, and the outrage this causes in some quarters only adds to their enjoyment. And if his statements sometimes fall foul of the fact-checkers, they see him as honest in what they regard as the more important sense that he is authentic and has set about doing the things he said he would: rare enough traits in an elected official.

After years of feeling ignored or even despised by the political class, believing a President is speaking and acting for them is an almost exhilarating experience…

The perpetual horror at the President’s words and deeds, especially on social media, has produced an expanding class of radicalised activists for whom the antidote to Trumpism is not moderation and consensus but can only be found on the Left. They overwhelmingly want to see a liberal progressive as their party’s nominee in 2020.

Uncommitted voters in the middle, meanwhile, prefer a centrist candidate, and the Republicans in play – such as those who switched from Obama to Trump in the rustbelt, moderates who stayed at home or voted grudgingly to stop Hillary, and reluctant Trumpers who backed the Democrats last November but would still put themselves on the centre-right – would take some convincing to elect someone the most radical Democrats have chosen in their own image.

Already, some Democrats are wrestling with the trade-off between a candidate they can celebrate and a candidate who can win. Their decision will determine who delivers the next inaugural address on Capitol Hill two years from today.

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