An Analysis of Super Tuesday and the Republicans

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Don’t you hate having to watch TV for six hours to keep up with the election results?  This year, you don’t have to.  I will be running an election board.  That will allow you to instantly get  the results in all 12 states in a matter of seconds.  The board will be constantly updated and you will see when a state has been called. Why not click the link and add it to your favorites and check in as many times as you’d like.  I will be doing nothing else but updating the board.

 

This coming Tuesday will be the most important day in the primary season for the republicans.  I will walk you through the 12 states and give you whatever information that is currently available:

Note.. All delegates awarded are estimates but will be in the right neighborhood.

ALABAMA…There are 50 delegates up for grabs on a proportional basis.  The Real Clear Poll averages gives Trump a lead of 35.5 to 17.5 for Rubio and 15.5 for Cruz.  Assuming all three qualify for delegates, Trump would get 18 delegates, Rubio 9 and Cruz 8.

 

ALASKA CAUCUS…There are 28 delegates up for grabs.  There has been only one poll, which Trump leads, but not enough actual data to prepare an estimate.  In the one current poll, Trump leads Cruz 28% to 24% but it was taken around New year’s before Cruz started crashing and Rubio started rising.

 

ARKANSAS…There are 40 delegates up for grabs on a proportional basis.  There has only been one poll, which Cruz leads narrowly over Trump and Rubio who are tied for second.  Not enough information to estimate delegates.

 

COLORADO…Colorado holds a non voting caucus and it’s 37 delegates are unpledged.

 

GEORGIA…Georgia has 78 delegates to be awarded on a proportional basis.  The RCP average is Trump 37%.  Rubio 21.3% and Cruz with 18.3%.  Trump would receive 29 delegates, Rubio 17 and Cruz 14.

 

MASSACHUSETTS…Mass. has 42 delegates and Trump has a huge lead with 45%.  Rubio is second with 17.5%.  Cruz finishes 4th at 10%.  Trump 19 delegates.  Rubio 7 and Cruz would get none because he has under 15% of the vote needed to qualify.

 

MINNESOTA…There are 38 delegates up for grabs.  There are only 2 polls and neither is current.  One has Rubio by 2 and one has Trump by seven.  Rubio might win Minnesota because his open borders policy is favorable to the Muslims living there.

 

OKLAHOMA…Oklahoma has 43 delegates to be awarded proportionately.  The polls give Trump a seven point lead over Cruz with Rubio in third.

 

TENNESSEE…Ten  has 58 delegates up for grabs.  Polling shows Trump with a lead of 33-17 over Cruz, Carson thirds and Rubio fourth with just 5%.  Unless those numbers change a bit, Trump will get all 58 delegates.

 

TEXAS…This is an interesting state.  There are 155 delegates available and this could be Ted Cruz’s last stand.  If he loses Texas, his campaign is dead in the water.  But even if he does win, it won’t hurt Trump, because he will leave Texas with an almost identical number of delegates.  The polls are all over the place with Cruz winning two polls by 8% and 15% and tied with Trump in two others.  I’d say it’s Cruz’s to lose but again the delegates will be almost equal.

 

VERMONT…Vermont has sixteen delegates.  Trump is heavily favored with such a low delegate count, it won’t be a game changer.

 

VIRGINIA…Va has 49 delegates awarded proportionately.

RCP Average 2/3 – 2/24 35.7 20.7 16.0 7.3 7.3 Trump +15.0
Monmouth 2/22 – 2/24 421 LV 4.8 41 27 14 7 7 Trump +14
Roanoke College 2/16 – 2/24 466 LV 4.5 38 13 15 8 8 Trump +23

The polls show Virginia as a runaway .  On March 15th winner take all states begin to emerge and the first three, Florida, Ohio and Arizona.  Trump is favored in all three with a delegate total of 213 delegates.  My guess the race will be decided by March 15th, if not officially, then apparently.

 

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