Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.
When a candidate has a rough stretch like this in the polls, you’ll sometimes see his or her supporters pass through the various stages of grief before accepting the results, beginning with a heavy dose of “unskewing” or cherry-picking of various polls. In this case, however, the shift in the race is apparent in a large number of high-quality surveys, and doesn’t depend much on the methodology one chooses.
All of this is tricky, though, because we still don’t have a great sense for where the long-term equilibrium of the race is, but all the Wikileaks revelations have really upended this cycle, and Clinton is wrealing, and rightly so. It seems she is more corrupt than any of us even thought. Perhaps Trump isn’t that different from a “generic Republican” after all, but one thing is sure, he is not at the level of Hillary Clinton. Clinton is as dishonest a candidate I’ve ever seen, and for her to be the Democrat standard bearer, says a lot about the system. What do you think?