The Biden administration is proposing severe new automobile pollution regulations that would require up to two-thirds of new vehicles sold in the United States to be electric by 2032, representing a nearly tenfold increase over current electric vehicle sales.
The proposed regulation, announced Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency, would impose the harshest tailpipe emissions restrictions ever imposed — and ask for significantly more additional EV sales than the car industry agreed to less than two years ago.
If completed as projected next year, the proposal would constitute the most significant push yet toward a once-unthinkable transition from gasoline-powered automobiles and trucks to battery-powered vehicles.
Here’s a look at what the EPA is proposing, how it would help President Joe Biden’s aim of cutting America’s greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, and if the auto industry will be able to meet the new EV targets:
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Q. What is the EPA proposing?
A. The proposed tailpipe pollution limitations do not force the sale of a certain number of electric vehicles each year but rather limit greenhouse gas emissions. Depending on how automakers comply, the EPA estimates that by 2030, at least 60% of new passenger vehicles produced in the United States would be electric, and up to 67 percent by 2032.
The EPA predicts that 46 percent of new vehicle sales for somewhat larger, medium-duty trucks will be EVs by 2032.
The proposal, according to EPA Administrator Michael Regan, is “the most ambitious pollution standards ever for cars and trucks,” and it will decrease air and climate pollution while also lowering fuel and maintenance costs for families.
Following a public comment period, the agency will choose from a number of choices, according to Regan.
The rule is set to be finalized next year.
Q: What is the auto industry’s reaction to the proposed rules?
A. John Bozzella, CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group that represents the majority of automakers, called the EPA proposal “aggressive by any measure” and stated in a statement that it exceeds the Biden administration’s announced 50 percent electric vehicle sales target for 2030 less than two years ago.
He noted that reaching 50% was always a “stretch goal,” based on manufacturing incentives and tax subsidies to make EVs more affordable. It remains to be seen if those safeguards are sufficient to support electric vehicle sales at the level envisaged by the EPA, he wrote.
“The question isn’t can this be done, it’s how fast can it be done,” Bozzella wrote. “How fast will depend almost exclusively on having the right policies and market conditions in place.”
Q. How might the proposal benefit the environment?
A. The proposed standards for light-duty cars and trucks are projected to result in a 56 percent reduction in projected greenhouse gas emissions compared with existing standards for the model year 2026, the EPA claimed. The proposals would improve air quality for communities across the nation, avoiding nearly 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, more than twice the total U.S. CO2 emissions last year, the EPA said.
The idea would also save thousands of dollars throughout the life of the vehicles sold and lessen the United States’ reliance on about 20 billion barrels of oil imports, according to the agency.
Q: Is the EPA proposal feasible?
A. With electric vehicles accounting for only 7.2 percent of U.S. vehicle sales in the first quarter of this year, the sector has a long way to go to even come close to meeting the Biden administration’s targets. Even while the percentage of EV sales is increasing, it was just 5.8 percent of new car sales last year.
Analysts in the auto business believe automakers will struggle to match the percentage of the expected sales. According to the consulting firm LMC Automotive, new EV sales could reach 49 percent in 2032 but are unlikely to exceed that due to high EV prices compared to gas-powered automobiles.
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According to a new poll released Tuesday, Americans aren’t yet persuaded on going electric for their next car, citing high pricing and a lack of charging stations as the biggest deterrents.
Only 19 percent of U.S. people believe it is “very” or “extremely” likely that they will buy an EV the next time they buy a car, while 22 percent believe it is fairly likely. According to a poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, over half (47%) said they are unlikely to switch to electric vehicles.
White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi claimed that since Biden assumed office, EV sales have tripled and the number of accessible EV models has doubled. Analysts’ projections have been revised upward several times since Biden entered office, and the sector has declared over $100 billion in EV investments, Zaidi told reporters Tuesday.
“The automakers have … technology and the infrastructure and supply chain to be able to achieve this with the lead time they’ve got,” Zaidi said.
Q. Why is the government so concerned about the tailpipe rule?
A. According to the EPA, transportation is the greatest source of carbon emissions in the United States, accounting for approximately 27 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. At 25%, electricity is the second greatest source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Environmental groups argue that stronger tailpipe pollution rules are required to clean the air we breathe and mitigate the effects of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires.
“Done right, these (new rules) will put the U.S. on the path to end pollution from vehicle tailpipes — while also slashing our dependence on oil, creating good domestic jobs, and saving consumers money on fuel,” claimed Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the Natural Resources Defense Council.
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Q. Is the Biden administration doing anything else to encourage EVs?
Aside from stricter pollution restrictions, tax credits for EV manufacturing and purchases included in the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” passed last year, according to the White House and its advocates, will help meet the harsher requirements.
Many new EVs manufactured in North America are currently eligible for a $7,500 tax credit, while used EVs can receive up to $4,000.
Some automobiles, however, are excluded due to price and purchaser income constraints.
Furthermore, beginning April 18, new Treasury Department regulations will result in fewer new electric vehicles qualifying for the full $7,500 federal tax credit.
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