For a two week period Ted Cruz had everything his own way. He picked up delegates even though he lost primaries in several of these states. But the two weeks in April changed everything. Trump won well over 200 delegates and won all but a couple of counties in the six states with primaries. Last week, he won every county in all five states holding primaries. There are now large chinks in Cruz’s armor. On Tuesday, Indiana holds it’s primary and a loss by Cruz would be the death knell of his campaign.
Many of the delegates Cruz has won are not actually bound to vote for him. He ran a slate of candidates friendly to his campaign, but they aren’t bound. North Dakota is a great example. The National Review, who hates Donald Trump with a passion, talked to 10 of the delegates, who ran as Cruz supporters. Five of the ten now say they are unsure about their vote and want to see how the next couple of weeks play out.
It’s a simple rule in politics to align yourself with the winner. The loser will not be able to hand out patronage jobs or hand out grants needed by the states for roads, schools and anything else. The winner does. If Trump wins Indiana as it looks like he might by more than double digits, you will see politicians rush to hop on the Trump bandwagon. Trump’s two very good weeks are much better than Cruz’s good two weeks because with Trump, the voters selected the winner and not the state party bosses.
Trump is riding on the crest of a wave and there is no indication of any kind that he can be stopped. Cruz could likely drop out after Indiana, not because he wants to but because his donations have been drying up and after Tuesday, many donors might see it as throwing good money after bad.