There has been much discussion about a brokered convention. That is beginning to look more improbable by the day. In the primaries held last Tuesday, Trump won every county in every state, giving him a total of 994 or 995 depending on what source you use. For the sake of argument, we will use the 994 figure. How likely is it that Trump will reach 1237 by convention time? Extremely so if he wins in Indiana. Indiana awards the winner 30 delegates and another 3 for every congressional district won for another 27. Should trump win, he would get at least 42 delegates. That makes 1036.
On May 10th, Nebraska and WV will be on the docket. Cruz is favored in winner take all Nebraska as Trump is favored in West Virginia. That adds 34 delegates for Trump. Total…1060. The following week is Oregon, where Trump is favored in the proportional primary. Assuming he gets 1 more than half the delegates, the lowest number he would get for a win adds 15 delegates. Total…1075.
May 24th sees Washington state’s proportional primary, which Cruz is currently favored in for the 44 delegates. Let’s assume Trump gets just 30% of the vote. That would give him 13 delegates. Total…1088. NJ is winner take all with 51 delegates at stake. Trump is a shoo in to win it. Total…1139. New Mexico is proportional and Trump should win that. Again assuming he takes the minimum for inning the state, he would gain another 13 delegates. Total…1152.
That would leave Trump just 85 delegates shy of 1237. He currently has a lead of 22 points in the Golden State. The estimates on how many delegates Trump will win in California ranges from 98 to 120. Assuming the lowest estimate, Trump ends up with 1250 delegates and victory on the first ballot.
There will also be up to 200 unbound delegates at the convention and even if only 20% go for Trump, he would have 1270.