President Donald Trump is defying expectations once again, with new polling data showing his second-term approval rating surpassing those of former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush at the same point in their respective presidencies.
According to the latest RealClear Polling average, Trump currently sits at a 47.5 percent approval rating. In comparison, Obama held a 46.6 percent rating and Bush 46.1 percent during the same early stretch of their second terms. These numbers, drawn from a range of polling organizations across the political spectrum—including left-leaning Reuters/Ipsos and right-leaning Rasmussen Reports—underscore a growing public confidence in the Trump administration’s direction.
The development is a blow to critics who have long predicted political fatigue or declining support for Trump following his return to the Oval Office in January. Instead, the numbers suggest a resurgent political mandate and increased public optimism.
“BREAKING: In a stunning blow to the media narrative, latest polling finds President Trump has a HIGHER average approval rating than at this point in Obama and Bush’s 2nd terms,” political commentator Eric Daugherty noted Tuesday in a post on X.
The difference in polling methodology among firms remains stark. Rasmussen’s most recent figures show Trump with a 53 percent approval rating and 46 percent disapproval, giving him a net positive standing. On the other hand, Reuters/Ipsos reported a 42 percent approval to 52 percent disapproval ratio, placing the president underwater by 10 points. The RealClear average smooths out these extremes to give a broader picture.
Adding to the momentum, Rasmussen also reported last week that, for the first time in its history of tracking the question, 50 percent of Americans believe the country is on the right track. It’s a notable shift from the pessimism that marked much of the previous administration’s final year in office.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed the numbers during a press briefing, tying the rising approval to Trump’s renewed economic and national security policies.
“Our country is clearly heading in the right direction under President Trump’s bold leadership,” Leavitt said. “Despite all the doomcasting from the media, Americans are growing more and more optimistic about the economy under this president.”
Leavitt highlighted a sharp increase in the Consumer Confidence Index in May—the largest single-month jump in four years—as further evidence of a renewed faith in Trump’s stewardship.
“The increase in confidence was broad-based across all age groups, income groups, and political affiliations,” she added.
The polling data also rebuts a narrative that has persisted in mainstream media circles since 2021—that Trump’s political future was in terminal decline. In fact, the very institutions that forecasted his defeat have had to reconcile with his ongoing popularity among American voters.
For context, Trump’s 2024 election victory was forecasted by Rasmussen in the weeks leading up to the vote, giving him a three-point edge. Meanwhile, Reuters/Ipsos had projected a slight lead for then-candidate Kamala Harris. Trump’s win not only contradicted the expectations of those polls but also signaled a deeper realignment within key voter blocs, especially among working-class Americans and Hispanic voters.
Now months into his second term, Trump appears to be exceeding expectations—not just among his base, but with an electorate increasingly disillusioned with the status quo.
Whether this trend continues remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: President Trump is not just maintaining support—he’s building it, and doing so at a pace that neither Obama nor Bush matched after winning re-election.