If you live on the Blue Coast and want to waste your presidential vote this year, cast it for Donald Trump.
Before you get all huffy and trot out Chicken Little on me, kindly keep one number in mind: 270. Now, let me explain why that number matters and why a vote for Trump won’t matter if you’re on the Blue Coast (Washington, Oregon, California), and what you can do about it. It involves the Electoral College, the 12th Amendment, and some simple math.
Regarding the Electoral College, a candidate must win 270 of the 538 total electoral votes to become President. However, if no presidential ticket receives a majority of electoral votes, the 12th Amendment comes into play. Then the U.S. House of Representatives elects the President.
The latest Real Clear Politics Electoral Map shows Clinton leading Trump 201 to 165. There are 172 electoral “toss ups” spread throughout 14 states. None are on the Left Coast. (Other sources say 302 electoral votes for Clinton, 235.7 for Trump.)
Hate to break it to you Blue Coast peeps, but your vote in this year’s presidential race doesn’t matter. Sorry. That’s the math. (This offer is null and void in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida.)
As radio show host and conservative commentator Steve Deace recently reminded his audience, it’s entirely possible that Trump could win the popular vote and still lose the election:
Instead of focusing on national polls and popular polls, radio host Steve Deace appeared on Dana to offer voters — especially those vying for Trump — a succinct, strong reminder that the election is an Electoral College battle, one where Hillary Clinton clearly has the advantage right now.
Deace didn’t rule out a Trump victory but did say it’s Pennsylvania or bust.
“I would just tell your audience that if they want to save themselves some time in the next 60 days to keep an eye on Pennsylvania,” he said.
“Until the polls change there, they don’t matter anywhere else,” Deace continued. “Because here is what Trump has to do if he doesn’t win Pennsylvania: He’s got to win Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida.
“Nobody has done that on the Republican Party, Dana, since Reagan’s landslide of ’84. So Pennsylvania is the key battlefield state in the election.”
Pennsylvania isn’t the Left Coast. Neither is North Carolina.
So, as Deace points out, the brass ring in this election is the Electoral College. With that in mind, indulge me a moment while I focus on my state, the People’s Republic of Washington.
It’s a virtual certainty that Washington will break for the Marquise de Kleptocratia in November. According to Real Clear Politics and anyone who’s observed state voting trends for say, 20 minutes or so, the Evergreen State doesn’t just “lean Clinton.” It’s “likely Clinton” – by a substantial margin.
Latest polls show Clinton up by either six points or by 19 in Washington. The RCP average point spread here is +12.5 for Clinton. That’s significant, any way you slice it. (Here are some more national polls. In case you’re wondering.)
If Trump closes the gap and there’s a decent chance he can pick up Washington’s 12 Electoral College votes, then a vote for Trump will matter in this state. But as things stand now – with just over a month to go until election night – that’s highly unlikely. Hence, a good argument can be made that a Trump vote in Washington is a vote for a Sure Loser.
On the other hand, voting write-in or third party gives “stay-at-homers” who are anti-Clinton but repelled by Trump a chance to engage against Hillary, thus denying Clinton a majority and Washington’s 12 Electoral College votes. That’s key. Remember, it’s all about the Electoral College. Any vote that doesn’t move the Electoral College needle in this state is a “waste.”
Don’t misunderstand. I’m not saying “don’t vote.” Far from it. I’m saying make your vote matter. Here’s how:
Given the above scenario, the only presidential vote that will matter in Washington will be a write-in. Why? Because unlike a Sure Loser vote, a write-in can actually affect the final outcome here.
A lot of misinformation has circulated regarding write-ins in Washington. The claim that a write in vote “doesn’t count” or is a “wasted vote” in Washington is untrue. As a recent phone call to the Washington Secretary of State’s office confirmed, write-in votes in Washington are indeed “counted” in the General. They’re included in the final tally in November if “they affect the final outcome.”
What does this mean? Again, it’s all about 270 Electoral College votes. Forty-eight states, including Washington, use a “winner-take-all” electoral system. The presidential ticket that receives the most votes in the state are entitled to all of Washington’s 12 electoral votes. If Washington breaks for Clinton – as it almost certainly will – she scoops up the state’s 12 Electoral College votes. (See Deace commentary, above. Also see Nate Silver: Gary Johnson Victory in NM ‘Plausible,’ Could Mean Electoral College Deadlock. I am not a Johnson fan. The point here is the importance of the Electoral College.)
So kindly kick out of binary mode for a minute. Consider:
- If a vote for a Sure Loser isn’t going to nab Washington’s Electoral College votes, then why vote for a Sure Loser? Remember: It’s all about 12/270 in this state.
- Voting write-in gives voters who are disenchanted with both candidates a reason to show up – and move the Electoral College needle away from Clinton. As outlined above, that’s kind of a big deal.
- While the Blue Coast will almost certainly break for Hillary in the presidential, a write-in can not only deny Clinton an Electoral College majority (50% + 1. Don’t confuse this with a plurality), it can also put the 12th Amendment into play.
- If you’re a Blue Coast resident, your time and energy are best expended on influencing voters in key battleground states.
What it boils down to is this: If you’re a Washingtonian and are serious about stopping Clinton, better grab a pen.
Indeed, voting write-in in the People’s Republic of Washington offers a hat trick: 1) Incentive for voting down-ballot in local and state races; 2) The only way to affect the outcome in the presidential race via the Electoral College; 3) A way to vote without violating your conscience or principles. (Oregon and California rules may differ. Be sure to check with your Secretary of State.)
That’s called a win-win-win.
So put down the knives, Blue Coast friends. Stop trying to guilt-trip or coerce Conservatives of Conscience into voting for El Trumpo. Stop savaging conservatives who have the unmitigated gall to resist chug-a-lugging Kool Aid de Donald. Quit browbeating those who aren’t buying the “lesser of two evils” argument. (Incidentally, there’s no such thing as “not voting for Trump is a vote for Clinton.” That’s a false dichotomy wrapped in a flawed syllogism tied up with an absurdity. A vote for Trump is a vote for Trump. A vote for Clinton is a vote for Clinton. Period.)
Blue Coasters, you have but one valid presidential vote in November. Make it matter. If you’re serious about stopping Clinton, think outside the binary box. Focus on what counts: 12 and 270.
Got that pen?
