Some down-ticket Republicans may be feeling Donald Trump Drag in the battle to retain control of the Senate. Senate Democrats only need to pick up five seats to regain control of the upper chamber. While Democrats are defending ten seats in November, Republicans face a more daunting challenge as they try to hang on to 24.
Here are nine Senate seats that are most likely to flip, according to The Hill:
1. Mark Kirk (R) – Illinois
Kirk’s seat is most likely to turn blue this cycle. President Obama won the state by double digits in 2008 and 2012. He faces a formidable challenge from Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth.
Kirk has tried to capitalize on the workplace retaliation lawsuit against Duckworth when she served as head of the state’s Department of Veteran Affairs, but it has failed to gain steam, and the GOP senator, known for making gaffes, is catching flak for calling Obama a “drug dealer in chief” in regards to last month’s $400 million payment to Iran.
2. Ron Johnson (R) – Wisconsin
Johnson is also viewed as one of the most vulnerable senators in his rematch with former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Republican groups have scaled back funding as Johnson trails in the polls.
Conflicting polls released Wednesday, however, are a bright spot for Johnson. While one poll has him down 13 points, another has him trailing by only a few points. Both surveys show GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump closing the gap in Wisconsin, a sign the state is not entirely off the map.
3. Kelly Ayotte (R) – Hampshire
Ayotte is expected to easily overcome her primary challenge in mid-September, but she faces an uphill battle against likely Democratic opponent Maggie Hassan. The New Hampshire governor holds a narrow lead over Ayotte in a state that Obama also carried in 2008 and 2012.
Ayotte has sought to distance herself from Trump, even as Hassan has tried to tie her to him.
4. Pat Toomey (R) – Pennsylvania
The presidential race appears to be trickling into Toomey’s reelection. Political observers in the state say he’s running a strong campaign, but his dip in the polls is largely thanks to the top of the ticket.
Toomey continues to withhold his support from Trump. But his opponent, Katie McGinty, a little-known former gubernatorial chief of staff, has been helped by Clinton’s consistent lead over Trump in the Keystone State. McGinty has maintained a lead since mid-July, though one survey has Toomey up 7 points
5. Open seat (R) – Indiana
Indiana makes its debut on the list after Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh’s last-minute bid for his old seat. It has prompted election handicappers to move the once safe GOP seat to a toss-up or Democratic-leaning.
Bayh has a comfortable lead over his GOP opponent, Rep. Todd Young, in the race to replace retiring Sen. Dan Coats.
6. Open seat (D) – Nevada
Good news here on the Dump Harry Reid front. While the race for Harry Reid’s seat has been relatively quiet with limited polling, Rep. Joe Heck (R) is keeping the race razor-thin against former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Heck has yet to be dragged down by Trump even in a state with a large Latino population.
7. Richard Burr (R) – North Carolina
Once low on the list, Burr’s race has been moved up as Republicans grow concerned about his reelection and both presidential nominees shift their attention and resources to the Tar Heel State.
Former state Rep. Deborah Ross wasn’t Democrats’ top recruit for the seat, but she’s proven to be a strong fundraiser and has started to cut into Burr’s polling lead as Clinton also performs well in the state. Both candidates will have to overcome a name recognition hurdle in the final two months.
8. Rob Portman (R) – Ohio
Portman is defying Trump’s down-ballot drag. While Clinton leads Trump by several points, the GOP senator tops former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by as much as 15 points in the latest poll. His strong performance prompted groups from both parties to withdraw spending in the state and shift elsewhere.
It’s not just Portman’s polling advantage that has him well-positioned for November. He’s snagged four labor union endorsements that have backed Strickland in his previous races. And he’s kept up a cushy cash advantage as the former governor fails to make significant strides in his fundraising.
8. Marco Rubio (R) – Florida
Strategists expect the race between Rubio and Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) to tighten by November. Rubio is expected to hold onto his seat. He’s ahead in nearly every poll – outperforming Trump. Rubio is also benefiting from good name recognition following his unsuccessful bid for the White House.
Do you see the Senate going blue in November? Is your senator on the list? Who would you add or subtract?
H/T: The Hill
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