Ted Cruz truly did win big in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, his fourth primary win of the year. He has done much better in caucuses, where his ground game can bring in busloads of supporters. He is still behind Donald Trump by 226 delegates and we are quickly approaching an eight day span where 267 delegates will be awarded.
On April 19th the New York primary with it’s 95 delegates is the only contest. Trump is expected to pick up all 95. That would give him a 362 delegate lead. Cruz could even finish third behind Trump and Kasich. Cruz is not well liked here after dissing New York values. He may not like NY values, but he sure loves NY money. His top donors hail from the Empire State. Robert Mercer, the hedge fund investor who has given $11 million to a pro-Cruz super PAC
Mercer probably paid that 11 million out of the billions he has cheated the IRS out of. In 2014 senators in both parties criticized the way he structured his business in order to dodge the tax man. As John McCain said:
“Renaissance profited from this tax treatment by insisting on the fiction that it didn’t really own the stocks it traded—that the banks that Renaissance dealt with, did. But, the fact is that Renaissance did all the trading, maintained full control over the account…and reaped all of the profits.”
Between the years 2000 and 2013, Mercer avoided paying 6 BILLION dollars in taxes on his profits.
Ian Reisner, the hotelier who, with his business partner Mati Weiderpass, hosted a Central Park South fundraiser for Cruz last year. So did Michael Waldorf, managing director at the hedge fund led by billionaire Republican donor John Paulson.
Ian Reisner is a gay man who is also a gay activist. Not so coincidentally, while in NYC, Cruz promised not to make opposing gay marriage an issue in his administration. This was after a June 2015 interview on NPR in which he said that opposition to gay marriage would be front and center in his 2016 campaign. Also, Cruz accepted a sweetheart loan from NY banking giant Goldman Sachs that he “forgot” to mention on his financial disclosure forms.
The following week Cruz and Trump face off in five states, Ct, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Trump is expected to sweep all five. Pennsylvania could be a question mark, but voters there are bitter over the huge job losses as a result of trade treaties like the ones Cruz promotes. Delaware and Maryland are winner take all states, where 54 delegates are up for grabs. That increases Trump’s lead to 416 delegates. Pennsylvania is a winner take most state and the bulk of their 71 delegates will go to Trump. Trump would then lead by at least 445 delegates.
Rhode Island and Connecticut are proportional states with 47 delegates up for grabs. Trump is expected to get at least 29 of those, Cruz 8 and Kasich 10. Trump now leads by 466 delegates and has a total of at least 949 delegates.
May 3rd is Indian with a winner take most method of assigning delegates. Indiana heavily favors Trump and he should win and Kasich could do well being a neighboring governor. For the sake of argument we will split the delegates 40-17 Trump and Cruz. May 10th will see West Virginia and Nebraska. Nebraska.a is a winner take all state and Cruz should win there easily, picking up all 36 delegates. Trump will win WV and split delegates with Cruz 22-12. Trump 62 delegates….Cruz 65 delegates. Trump leads by 463 and has 1011 delegates total.
Montana is the only other state left where Cruz is expected to win. It’s 27 delegates goes to the winner of the primary. Cruz should also pick up between 40 and 50 of the California delegates. But Trump is expected to win 94 and will win New Jerseys 51 winner take all delegates. That brings Trump’s total to 1156. He would then need 81 of the 153 remaining delegates to be awarded.
Cruz is counting on a brokered convention in which he will be down by as many as 600 delegates going in. And to top it off, if he does actually force a brokered convention, the establishment will find a way to see Paul Ryan or some other RINO take the nomination because they hate Cruz as much as they do Trump. It’s just that Trump scares them a lot more because he is bringing in democratic voters, which Cruz can’t.