A political science professor who has accurately predicted the winners of previous presidential elections asserts that his statistical model shows Donald Trump has a 97-99% chance of taking the Oval Office if he wins the Republican nomination.
Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth has created a statistical algorithm that uses a candidate’s performance in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast the winner of the presidential election.
Should Trump follow through on his huge momentum and become the Republican nominee, he has a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth, who presented his findings at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan earlier this week.
