Appearing at CPAC, Ted Cruz told Sean Hannity and the audience that there would be a revolt at the national convention if it became a brokered convention. He told them that the only way to really beat Trump was at the ballot box. That was a pretty principled statement to make. Of course, it was made at a time when he thought he could win the most delegates. Over the next few weeks, it became obvious that he couldn’t.
Here is the video of Ted Cruz at CPAC:
Now that he will be mathematically eliminated for 1237 delegates on April 19th, Cruz has reversed his “principled” stand and will fight it out in a brokered convention. I guess the only way to beat Trump is not at the ballot box. Cruz’s stats are misleading to begin with. He has 10 victories but only 4 in primaries, 5 in caucuses and one at a state convention. He has more delegates from states he lost than from states he has won.
The four primaries he has won is Texas, his home state, Oklahoma, a subsidiary of Texas, Wisconsin and Idaho. There is no doubt about why Cruz does so well in caucuses. His ground game is far superior to Trump’s and 3 or 4 busloads of supporters will swing the entire vote. However, there are no caucuses in the general election.
So, what are Cruz’s chances at a brokered convention? Zero. He will be behind in delegates by 500 to 600 to Trump. But Trump’s chances of winning a brokered convention is zero also. He will have at least 1187 delegates going in. But after the first round of voting the advantage passes from Trump to an establishment savior. In Tennessee, where Trump won easily, all 58 delegates were selected by the establishment as have many others across the country. Trump and Cruz delegates will be swamped by establishment representatives who will cajole, threaten and bribe as many delegates as needed to win.
If Trump gets to 1237 delegates, the establishment loses. There is one other possibility. Marco Rubio turned down an offer by Cruz to work together to deny Trump the necessary delegates to win. Rubio is trying to hold on to his delegates going into the convention, where he can cut a deal. It’s unlikely he can cut a deal with Cruz because he doesn’t have enough delegates for a Cruz victory, but he does have enough to make a deal with Trump. But that’s conjecture at best.